All warfare is based on deception. Offer the enemy a bait to lure him. … Be seen in the West and march out of the East; lure him in the North and strike him in the South. Drive him crazy and bewilder him so that he disperses his forces in confusion.
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
On April 18, 1988, the U.S. Navy struck Iranian maritime targets in retaliation for the mining of USS Samuel B. Roberts and the wounding of 15 sailors. “Operation Praying Mantis” was the largest U.S. Navy surface action since World War II, destroying two Iranian surveillance platforms and sinking two of their ships and severely damaging another.
Until June 21, 2025, “Operation Praying Mantis” was also the only time the U.S. smacked Iran for attacking Americans, which Tehran has been doing with impunity since it invaded sovereign U.S. territory on Nov. 4, 1979, and held U.S. embassy staff hostage for 444 days.
Letting Iran get away with murder, quite literally, cost thousands of American lives and created a sense of invulnerability in the Islamic Republic. Operations “Rising Lion” and “Midnight Hammer” shattered the mullahs’ might, re-establishing deterrence and escalation dominance.
“Operation Midnight Hammer” was an unprecedented attack years in the making—wrapped in secrecy, aided by skillful deception, and fueled by overwhelming surprise. B-2 Spirit bombers, flying from the U.S. heartland, picking up fighter escorts and refueling assets en route, dropped Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) on two deeply buried uranium enrichment plants—Fordow and Natanz—delivering a knockout blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The U.S. Navy bolstered the surprise with dozens of Tomahawk missiles, severely damaging a site in Isfahan.
The precision strikes devastated the Iranian nuclear program. Iran never detected the inbound jets, nor mustered a shot.
The operation—preceded by an equally bold and impactful Israeli “Operation Rising Lion,” which debilitated Iran’s leadership, air defenses and ballistic-missile arrays—demonstrated operational art unseen since “Operation Desert Storm” in 1991.
It appears that the 12-day war is now over. Like the 1967 Six-Day War, it relied heavily on air power, surprise, denial and deception. In both cases, the entire region and the face of battle were fundamentally transformed.
Yet, six years after that spectacular victory, on Oct. 6, 1973, surprise and deception upended the region once again. This time, it was Israel that was caught unaware by a devastating attack, masterfully executed by seemingly defeated foes.
Hopefully, Iran’s resolve, and not merely its military might, was broken by “Rising Lion” and “Midnight Hammer.” Otherwise, the victory will be short-lived. Hubris and complacency would inevitably set in, creating an environment where the victorious initiators of surprise could become its next victims.
In my 20-year tenure as professor of Military Strategy and Operations
at the National War College, I tried to convey this experience to my students. Today, they’re the nation’s top-most strategic leaders.
These are the lessons I shared with them.
- Always do a reality check, from your perspective and the opponent’s. Reality has rough edges, ambiguities, discontinuities, shades of gray, etc. If everything is crystal clear, the opponent behaves just like you would in similar circumstances and everything seems consistent with your best-case scenario, you are probably being deceived.
- State your planning assumptions up front, clearly and explicitly. Make an honest effort to periodically revalidate your assumptions. Ensure you don’t confuse estimates with facts, or hopes/wishful thinking with viable courses of action. Remember: Any course of action that relies on more than two consecutive miracles and violates more than one law of physics isn’t suitable, even as a deception or feint.
- Don’t fall in love with your plans. Don’t expect the opponent to cooperate. Have a branch/sequel to address the unexpected. Pay attention to what opponents and friends are saying and doing, especially if words and actions don’t match. Don’t discount indicators just because they point to things you would never do. There are no universal standards of rationality (or stupidity).
- Put your arm around your intelligence officers and help them by asking the “right” questions—tell them what you need to know and why. But be realistic. We’re yet to develop the ability to discern intentions. Don’t hesitate to ask how they know what they think they know. Question the bona fides of any information, no matter how comforting, convincing or highly classified.
- You don’t know what you don’t know, and what you don’t know can kill you. Create a leadership climate that allows alternative viewpoints to be given a fair hearing. Beware of groupthink and remember that hope is never a viable course of action. Just because something never happened before does not, by itself, preclude it from happening. Every precedent was created by someone’s act of courage (or terminal stupidity).
- Trust your instincts and be ready to pay the price you might incur. Warning and readiness measures are about being safe, not about being right. Don’t kill your staff for “crying wolf.” The third time they drag you out of bed at 2 a.m. might be to deal with a real disaster, not “just another exercise.”
- A timely, unambiguous warning is nice to have, but don’t count on it. Don’t assume that appropriate decisions will automatically follow a warning. You have a lot of latitude in your area of responsibility. Do what’s right, even if you have to bet your stars on it.
- Don’t be a victim. It sucks, even if you win. Never allow the initiator to exploit initial success. Surprise only determines how the first battles will be fought, but it’s up to you to revalidate this principle every single time. Don’t let surprise and deception determine final outcomes, unless, of course, you’re the initiator.
- Don’t get complacent. Hubris kills. Surprise is the ultimate asymmetric approach because it exploits weaknesses and capitalizes on vanities.
- Guile isn’t the opposite of valor, nor a good substitute for it, but it saves lives. Think and practice deception, denial and operational security. It might save lives—or at least be a pain for your opponent.
